bryan rich
Global Macro and Currency Specialist | | | |
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Archived analysis
Just Half-Way Through the Global Economic Crisis
Bryan Rich | Wednesday, October 5, 2011 at 11:00 am
Just months ago, the U.S. was in the crosshairs of global scrutiny. The government was being criticized for its unsustainable debt load. Politicians were bashed for their handling of the debt ceiling. [More »]
Looking beyond Europe: Why you should be buying Dollars!
Bryan Rich | Monday, September 26, 2011 at 8:00 am
While much of the current Wall Street and media focus is surrounding Greece and the problems in Europe, I'd like to focus on the fallout that's lining up beyond Europe ... i.e., what's next. [More »]
Rolling Sovereign Debt Defaults and Euro Break-Up Ahead
by Bryan Rich | Monday, September 19, 2011 at 8:00am
In this inaugural issue of Global Investor Weekly, I'd like to focus on the big picture. Stepping back and taking a big picture perspective on where we stand in this global economic environment can give clarity in a time of uncertainty ... [More »]
Market Activity Proving There are Few Places to Hide
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 13, 2011 at 7:30am
When Standard & Poor’s downgraded U.S. government debt last week, everyone was stirring about the prospects of a big sell-off in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries — but it didn’t happen. Instead, we witnessed a mass sell-off in nearly all other ... [More »]
Markets Melting, More to Come
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 6, 2011 at 7:30am
In late May, when the S&P 500 was trading just shy of its “post-crisis” highs, I made the case for why we should expect more pain ... a lot of it. And I said, with QE2 ending in June, QE3 may follow. Today, I revisit some of that big-picture analysis. In ... [More »]
Sovereign Debt Crisis Queuing Up Round Two of the Global Financial Crisis
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 30, 2011 at 7:30am
Without question, the sovereign debt crisis is in full swing … It is unsustainable debt that is threatening to break up the 12-year-old European Monetary Union. And it is unsustainable debt that is threatening default and downgrade to the most ironclad credit in the world: The credit of the United States. Investors and the media [More »]
The Next Stop for Revolution: Europe. Is the U.S. Far Away?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 23, 2011 at 7:30am
This past week we’ve seen yet another bailout scheme from euro-zone officials. This one is perceived to be the magic bullet to solve all of the failing monetary union’s problems. But I think we’ve seen this movie before ... [More »]
More Sovereign Downgrades in the Pipeline, Defaults to Follow … What to Do!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 16, 2011 at 7:30am
It’s easy to get confused by the daily deluge of information. For the past several weeks, the news on global economies and financial markets has been especially volatile ... [More »]
All Eyes on Europe … While China Quietly Weakens
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 9, 2011 at 7:30am
In recent weeks the crisis in Europe has continued to dominate world markets. But behind the scenes China, the world’s highly touted global growth savior, has been proving more and more fragile. China continues ... [More »]
The robust recovery isn’t underway; time to take matters into your own hands!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 2, 2011 at 7:30am
Just months ago, Wall Streeters and politicians were cheering that a recovery was well underway. Many forecasters were projecting 2011 to be a big year, with growth to be better than 5 percent — the kind of ... [More »]
Why the Smart Money Is Running for Cover!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 25, 2011 at 7:30am
Earlier this year, I wrote a Money and Markets piece titled “Social Unrest Setting the Stage for Sovereign Defaults.” We had already seen overthrows in Tunisia and Egypt, Libya was underway and other Middle ... [More »]
Greece just a symptom of the REAL Problem!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 18, 2011 at 7:30am
If you think the Greek debt crisis is the cause of Europe’s major ills, think again. It’s just a symptom of the far deeper problems I’ve been telling you about all alongAs I'll explain in this issue, the European Central Bank (ECB) is loaded ... [More »]
Signs Pointing to Another Round of Global Recession
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 4, 2011 at 7:30am
Over the past several weeks it’s become clear that the global economy is turning down ... *Japan returned to recession last month. So did Denmark. *Malaysia, Botswana, Ireland, Australia, Portugal and ... [More »]
The World Is Still Around; So Is the Dollar!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 28, 2011 at 7:30am
In the past four weeks, the dollar has surprised many people by staging a broad-based bounce. I wasn’t among them. For more than two years, every time the dollar has turned down, there has been a ... [More »]
QE2 coming to an end. Why QE3 could follow!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 7:30am
Next month, the Fed will be winding down its second round of quantitative easing. But will it be for good? Back in August, at a meeting of global finance officials in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Bernanke ... [More »]
Lehman Brothers Crisis: Just the Opening Act
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 14, 2011 at 7:30am
In 2008, the failure of Lehman Brothers nearly collapsed the global financial system. To avert collapse, it required unprecedented global government bailouts, backstops and policy responses. These efforts ... [More »]
A Market Littered with Speculators
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 7, 2011 at 7:30am
It seems that the widely accepted view of global markets for many months has been conveniently compartmentalized, and neatly described as: “Fed’s Easy Money Policies = Higher Asset Prices into ... [More »]
The Dollar: Sliding or Crashing?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 30, 2011 at 7:30am
Much has been made of the persistent slide in the dollar in recent months. Many proclaim it’s the end of its status as the primary world reserve currency. Others suggest it’s a notice of the demise of America ... [More »]
Why the Euro Is in the Path of a Slow-Moving Train
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 16, 2011 at 7:30am
Mark Twain once said, “If you don’t read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.” That couldn’t be truer in this crisis era. And for self-preservation, you’re probably ... [More »]
A Global View: Five Central Bank Decisions Serve as Warnings!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 9, 2011 at 7:30am
This past week we heard from a slew of key central banks on monetary policy. And when it was all said and done, we got important information on what to expect from the markets and economies going forward ... [More »]
World Currency Market Report
by Bryan Rich | Wednesday, April 6, 2011 at 3:00pm
Currency market participants have been repositioning and our models are signaling to do the same. The drivers are several key fundamental influences ... [More »]
Are You “Black Swan” Proof?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 2, 2011 at 7:30am
The first quarter of 2011 has come to a close. And while it was good for the stock market, it wasn’t good for the world. In fact it came with an unimaginable cocktail of economic shocks. First it was floods in ... [More »]
Portugal is big warning flag for ALL investors!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 26, 2011 at 7:30am
Remember 2007 when the subprime mortgage crisis began to unravel? If you recall, the cracks in the real estate market were exposed. And the problems kept spreading. First it was small mortgage lenders that ... [More »]
Intervention in the Yen — and the Huge Opportunity for You!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 19, 2011 at 7:30am
Japan's currency has gained nearly 40 percent against the dollar since the economic crisis erupted in the middle of 2007. And 8 percent of the yen's gains came during the past week despite the devastation from ... [More »]
Rate hike lurking; keep a close eye on the euro!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 7:30am
In the short term, market participants tend to have a very narrow focus when it comes to determining what information influences their decision making. And we’re certainly seeing that now ... [More »]
Seven Charts from Last November … You Must See!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 5, 2011 at 7:30am
Last November, the Fed officially announced its plans for a second round of quantitative easing — better known as QE2. This was a step most experts confidently professed would destroy the dollar. Despite ... [More »]
Social Unrest Setting the Stage for Sovereign Defaults!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 26, 2011 at 7:30am
Earlier this month, when tensions were just flaring up in Egypt, I wrote on February 5 a piece here in Money and Markets titled, “How Egypt’s Civil Unrest Could Spread to Asia, and What It Means for Your Investments!” ... [More »]
I’m No Dollar Permabull. I Just Go with the Facts!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 7:30am
I’ve given plenty of arguments in my Money and Markets columns over the past couple of years as to why I think the pontifications about the dollar’s demise are greatly exaggerated. The fact is, the dollar is ... [More »]
Politicians Pushing for a Corporate Tax Holiday: What It Would Mean for the Dollar
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 12, 2011 at 7:30am
There’s been talk escalating this week in Washington about offering U.S.-based multinational companies a tax break to bring home their earnings from foreign subsidiaries. It’s well known that the U.S. is sitting ... [More »]
How Egypt’s Civil Unrest Could Spread to Asia, and What It Means for Your Investments!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 5, 2011 at 7:30am
In recent weeks we’ve seen riots in Algeria, a coup in Tunisia and a massive public uprising in Egypt. The catalyst: The combination of skyrocketing food prices and high, persistent unemployment. But while most ... [More »]
Why Japan Needs a Weaker Yen, and How You Can Play It
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 29, 2011 at 7:30am
Standard & Poor’s downgraded Japan’s sovereign debt rating this week. It was the first cut in Japan’s rating in nine years. Japan now joins Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain — all of which have been downgraded in ... [More »]
China: Boom or Bust?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 7:30am
As China’s economy has continued to put up stellar economic growth in the midst of one of the worst global economic crises on record, it’s widely believed that China will lead the world out of its downturn and ... [More »]
Be Wary of Rosy Outlooks for 2011 … and Profit Along the Way!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 15, 2011 at 7:30am
Last year Byron Wien, the former Morgan Stanley strategist, former billion-dollar hedge fund strategist, current Vice-Chairman of Blackstone and highly touted market prognosticator predicted 2010 would be ... [More »]
The Falling Euro May Offer the Best Investment OPPORTUNITY in 2011
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 8, 2011 at 7:30am
As we start the New Year, the global investment climate looks remarkably similar to this time last year. The world is getting more bullish on the outlook for the U.S. Meanwhile, the unfolding sovereign debt ... [More »]
The U.S. is Muddling Along, Which Right Now … Doesn’t Look So Bad!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 18, 2010 at 7:30am
For the better part of 2009 and for the second half of 2010, the world’s focus has been on how dreadful things look in the U.S. and how great the opportunities are said to be everywhere else. But despite all ... [More »]
The End Game for the Euro
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 11, 2010 at 7:30am
The euro is doomed, and the consequences of its demise are far-reaching — both in terms of the dangers for anyone who is unprepared and the opportunities for those who are. This is so important I have ... [More »]
The Euro Zone’s Timeout Is Expiring!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 27, 2010 at 7:30am
Last year’s Thanksgiving weekend was an unusually active holiday news cycle. Of course, it was when Tiger Woods had his bizarre car accident outside of his home. That saga would dominate the news for ... [More »]
A World Awash in Government Intervention, Delays the Inevitable
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 20, 2010 at 7:30am
The past three years have been dominated by government intervention ... The U.S. propped up the banks with TARP money, and then gave banks ultra-easy money terms to recapitalize. And to unfreeze ... [More »]
Euro Back Under the Microscope
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 13, 2010 at 7:30am
Investors, politicians and the media have had tunnel vision for the better part of the past five months. And it’s been directed squarely on the United States. The world has been transfixed on the dollar. Experts ... [More »]
Currencies: Seven Charts You Should See
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 6, 2010 at 7:30am
The currency market, as well as all markets, have been heavily focused on the U.S. and the Fed’s plans for more quantitative easing (QE). And that’s had a huge impact on the dollar and on dollar sentiment. The ... [More »]
Currency War: "The Worst of Wars"
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 30, 2010 at 7:30am
Last week, here in Money and Markets, I suggested that the recent G-20 finance minister meetings could have a meaningful influence on the next trend in global currencies and other key markets. Therefore, we ... [More »]
G-20 Meetings Could Prove Very Important for Currencies
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 23, 2010 at 7:30am
While many investors have their eyes on the G-20 Summit in November, this weekend’s gathering of G-20 finance ministers could prove to be the more significant event for markets. If you take a look at recent ... [More »]
Reflation Trade Is Overdone
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 16, 2010 at 7:30am
In recent weeks, the dollar has been the centerpiece of speculation surrounding the outlook for global economies, rising protectionist threats and the resurgence of global asset prices. And it all derives from ... [More »]
China's Currency War: Enemy #1 for Global Economy
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 9, 2010 at 7:30am
When Brazil’s finance minister said the world was in a currency war, it came as big news to many people — a surprising “new” economic threat. But there’s nothing new about a currency war. China has been ... [More »]
QE2: This Time Is Different
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 2, 2010 at 7:30am
Since the Fed’s most recent meeting, everyone seems to have an opinion about another round of extraordinary monetary stimulus and the economic and market reactions such a move could leave in ... [More »]
Biggest Ever Yen Intervention – and What It Means for You!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 18, 2010 at 7:30am
Last week, I pointed to the challenges facing Switzerland and Japan’s currencies. As for the yen, I said that nothing short of actual intervention would relieve the pressure on its exporters. I also said that I ... [More »]
Can Switzerland and Japan Solve Their Currency Problem?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 11, 2010 at 7:30am
Currencies play an important role in the economic health of a country — impacting the flow of trade and capital. For instance, a weak currency can be quite good for an economy in times of recession. It ... [More »]
China Knows the Fate of the Euro
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 4, 2010 at 7:30am
This week, the U.S. Commerce Department gave China another pass on its currency manipulation, ruling against charges it was undercutting U.S. aluminum makers. This puts China’s currency back on the radar ... [More »]
Two Ways to Prepare for “Tail-Events”
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 28, 2010 at 7:30am
With bond yields and stock markets in the world’s major developed economies petering away, more people are asking: Where can we find investment returns? Wall Street’s answer: Emerging markets. The ... [More »]
Clear Signals That Market Risk Is Elevating
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 21, 2010 at 7:30am
It’s no secret the economic data in the U.S. and other major economies have rolled over. That’s why bond yields have taken another nose dive — hitting record lows in Germany and nearing record lows in the ... [More »]
Fed's Wake-Up Call Gives the Euro a Dose of Reality
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:30am
The Fed surprised many people this week when it announced it would respond to the deteriorating economy with more efforts to stimulate. It was a splash of cold water on the face of the world, a wake-up call ... [More »]
Yen on Intervention Watch
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 7, 2010 at 7:30am
As major global economies are beginning to feel the threat of another bout with recession, Japan is dealing with an extra challenge: An unwelcomed strong currency. Weak structural economic fundamentals ... [More »]
How to Cut the Risk in Your Portfolio
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 31, 2010 at 7:30am
I normally talk only about currencies in my Money and Markets columns. But today I want to make an exception and address some commonly held misconceptions many investors have about their ... [More »]
Why Currencies Play an Important Role in Earnings
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 24, 2010 at 7:30am
It’s earnings season. And more and more companies are talking about currencies. The headlines read like this ... “Weak Euro a Drain on S&P 500 Revenues” “Currency Fluctuations Wipe $500 Million off IBM ... [More »]
What the Big Mac Can Tell You about Currencies
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 7:30am
Currencies have experienced a massive wave of volatility in the past three years. Driving some of that volatility are the early stages of a sovereign debt and currency crisis. As I laid out in my June 26 ... [More »]
Your Chance to Profit as the Euro Rally Fizzles Out
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 10, 2010 at 7:30am
Over the past month, the talk from European officials about the sovereign debt crisis has gone relatively quiet. Meanwhile, the euro has bounced aggressively from 1.1877 to over 1.27 versus the dollar. It's ... [More »]
Three Key Markets Pointing to More Economic Pain Ahead
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 3, 2010 at 7:30am
In the past two weeks, we’ve seen China de-peg its currency from the dollar, the UK roll out historical fiscal austerity measures and Japan release details on a plan to tackle its massive debt load. The knee-jerk ... [More »]
The Big Picture, Part II: Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 26, 2010 at 7:30am
Last week, I laid out some important historical context for establishing a solid perspective on the big picture — a broad view of where the global economy stands and what we should expect going forward ... [More »]
The Big Picture, Part I: Following the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 19, 2010 at 7:30am
It’s easy to lose perspective on where the global economy stands ... to be confused by the daily deluge of information. So today, in the first of a two-part series, I want to give you some perspective on the big-picture and where we are today ... [More »]
The Dollar’s Bull Market Is Just Getting Started!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 12, 2010 at 7:30am
The dollar index has surged 20 percent since last November. And this week, it was sniffing around its 2009 high! That’s pretty impressive, especially given that the 2009 high was driven by an across the board ... [More »]
U.S. Stocks Offer Important Signals for Currency Investors
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 5, 2010 at 7:30am
Currencies represent the truest reflection of economic fundamentals and market sentiment. Therefore, they continue to be an important segment of the financial markets to watch. Since the “flash crash” in the ... [More »]
China's Currency Manipulation: About to Cause a Global Explosion?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 29, 2010 at 7:30am
Tim Geithner, Hillary Clinton and 200 other American bigwigs visited China this week. First on the agenda: China’s position on the rising tensions between North and South Korea. With the rest of the ... [More »]
Massive Currency and Debt Devaluations Lie Ahead
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 22, 2010 at 7:30am
The run-up in the stock market from March 2009 until last month was sharp and rewarding ... for some. But there was one problem, it came with disproportional risk. You see, the stock market rose to an extent ... [More »]
Japan: The Sleeping Sovereign Debt Giant
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 15, 2010 at 7:30am
Over the course of this year in my Money and Markets columns I've presented some compelling reasons why the euro zone and the euro were in for a life threatening crisis. And despite the general consensus ... [More »]
Europe WANTS a Lower Euro
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 8, 2010 at 7:30am
The euro is in devaluation mode ... in a sharp 17 percent decline against the dollar over the past five months. And I’ve written extensively on why, and why it still has further to go. Now I believe a covert ... [More »]
The Dominos Are Lining Up for a Sovereign Debt Crisis!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 1, 2010 at 7:30am
Boy, what a week! I’ve been warning about a troubled euro and a building sovereign debt crisis for some time. And the bond and currency market activities this past week are a clear example that the ... [More »]
Watch the Euro for Important Clues on Global Markets
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 24, 2010 at 7:30am
If you’re looking for clues on where stocks, commodities and global economies are headed, you might be better served keeping a close eye on the euro, rather than on the incoming stream of corporate ... [More »]
How Greece Can Impact YOU!
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 17, 2010 at 7:30am
The economic problems in Greece have made front page news for the better part of the past three months. And I’ve written several columns here in Money and Markets on the ongoing drama and its influence ... [More »]
Global Markets Giving Three More Warning Signals for the Euro
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 10, 2010 at 7:30am
It’s been two weeks since the bailout speculation surrounding the Achilles’ heel of the euro zone, Greece, has had some closure. European officials kept the balls in the air as long as they could in an attempt ... [More »]
Europe: Out of Time-Outs
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 3, 2010 at 7:30am
In sports, if the opposition is on a roll and the momentum is squarely against you ... you need a “time-out.” This interruption in action can break the rhythm of the opposing team and give your team a moment ... [More »]
Next Leg for the Euro: Down
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 20, 2010 at 7:30am
There are two major issues facing global currencies in the months ahead. And both have escalated in the past week. Issue #1: The Greek Drama. Act I: Sovereign debt fears. In the first act of the euro-zone ... [More »]
The Four Stages of the Prospective Dollar Bull Market
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 13, 2010 at 7:30am
Since last November, the dollar has climbed steadily against a basket of currencies — most notably against the euro. And based on my analysis, I think it’s just the early stages of this trend. In fact, for many ... [More »]
British Pound in for a Sharp Fall?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 6, 2010 at 7:30am
In my December 26 Money and Markets column I focused on the outlook for 2010, and the looming threats to global risk appetite. I warned that sovereign debt problems posed a major threat to global ... [More »]
Why You Should Be Worried About China
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 27, 2010 at 7:30am
Toward the end of last year, many market followers were speculating on a Fed hike as early as the first half of 2010. Global stock markets had experienced explosive bounces, commodity prices had surged from the ... [More »]
The Future of the Euro in Question
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 20, 2010 at 7:30am
At the beginning of this year, I wrote a Money and Markets column entitled “Will the Euro Become the Most Hated Currency for 2010?” At that time, the euro/dollar exchange rate was about 5 percent off of its ... [More »]
Risk Aversion: The Final Wave
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 13, 2010 at 7:30am
Over the past months I’ve written extensively in my Money and Markets columns about the bubbling over of the risk trade. I also warned about the rising threats that would likely make a sustainable recovery ... [More »]
Win-Win Scenario for the Dollar
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 6, 2010 at 7:30am
The debt problems in Dubai threw a wrench in the happy-go-lucky risk trade of last year. And since then, the perception of the state of the global economy has been unraveling. All of the sudden, the world ... [More »]
Fed's Currency Swap Lines: A BIG deal for the Dollar
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 30, 2010 at 7:30am
The Fed met this week on monetary policy. It was a bit of a snoozer. What wasn’t a snoozer, however, was what they’ve included in their recent monetary policy statements regarding currencies ... [More »]
Why the Dollar Rally Has Legs
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 7:30am
In December I wrote a Money and Markets column making the case for a bottom in the dollar. And since then the evidence supporting that thesis has grown. I also said there are plenty of ugly currencies ... [More »]
How to Reduce Your Risk in Currency Trading
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 16, 2010 at 7:30am
Pair trading is a popular stock-trading strategy. It gives you the opportunity to capture a dislocation between two stocks by taking a long position in one stock and simultaneously taking a short ... [More »]
Pressure Mounting on the British Pound
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 9, 2010 at 7:30am
The UK economy is in a tough spot ... it’s the only major economy that has yet to emerge from recession. It’s running the largest budget deficit of any industrialized country. And its central bank has ... [More »]
Will the Euro Become the Most Hated Currency for 2010?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 7:30am
For the better part of 2009 the U.S. dollar was the world’s most hated currency. But it’s looking increasingly likely the tables could turn in 2010. And the euro could take over that unenviable title ... [More »]
Risk Aversion vs. Risk Taking: What's in Store for 2010?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 26, 2009 at 7:30am
With 2009 coming to a close, I’d like to take a look back at the role that the big-picture environment has played in determining how currencies ... [More »]
Has the Dollar Bottomed?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 7:30am
For much of 2009, the dollar has been the Tiger Woods of global currencies. There has been a relentless snowball of negative sentiment ... [More »]
What Could Lift the Dollar?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 12, 2009 at 7:30am
The most recent employment data in the U.S. came in significantly better than what was expected. And the financial markets reacted in a different way this time. Interest rates went screaming ... [More »]
Has the Yen Topped?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 5, 2009 at 7:30am
The Japanese yen has been the best performing currency over the past two-and-a-half years. Since the unraveling of the subprime mortgage market and the subsequent peak in the carry trade, the yen has ... [More »]
Weighing the Dollar Alternatives: Part II
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 28, 2009 at 7:30am
In last week’s Money and Markets column, I analyzed the three major liquid currencies as prospective alternatives to the U.S. dollar: The Japanese yen, the British pound and the euro ... [More »]
Weighing the Dollar Alternatives
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 21, 2009 at 7:30am
The dollar has suffered a landslide of scrutiny and negative sentiment over the past eight months. Yet just nine months ago it was the currency that every investor and central banker in the world wanted ... [More »]
Is China’s Currency Manipulation Coming to a Head?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 14, 2009 at 7:30am
I’ve written several times here in Money and Markets about the geopolitical time bomb surrounding China’s currency manipulation. The most recent was in my October 31 column. I expect this issue to ... [More »]
The Next Bust: The "Risk Trade"
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 7, 2009 at 7:30am
A lot of focus was given to the central banks' meetings this week. That's because a lot of people would really like to see target rates start moving up from their low levels. Some argue for higher rates because ... [More »]
The Most Undervalued Currency in the World
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 7:30am
When the leaders from the 20 most powerful countries in the world (including China) met last month, they left with a pledge to work toward rebalancing global economies. That means countries running large ... [More »]
The Fed's Perfect Scenario
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 17, 2009 at 7:30am
If you consider all of the structural problems in the U.S. economy, there has not been a lot of progress toward getting things back on track. The root causes of what created the near debilitating ... [More »]
Is Intervention for the Yen on the Horizon?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 10, 2009 at 7:30am
In the summer of 2007, Bear Stearns confessed it had spent $3.2 billion bailing out two of its funds that were exposed to the sub-prime market. At the same time, the yen carry trade ... [More »]
What Does the G-7 Think About Currencies?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 7:30am
The G-7 meets this weekend in Istanbul. So what’s on the minds of these leaders of the top industrialized countries of the world? They’re all worried about currencies. Specifically ... [More »]
Did You Miss the 62% Run-Up in the Stock Market?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 26, 2009 at 7:30am
I normally talk only about currencies here in my Money and Markets column. But today I want to address some commonly held misconceptions many investors have about how their ... [More »]
Protectionism: Enemy of Recovery
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 19, 2009 at 7:30am
In the most global-reaching recession since the Great Depression, protectionism is a poison pill for recovery. And we got a taste of it this week ... The Chinese supply about 19 percent of ... [More »]
Strong Currencies — Not Welcome
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 12, 2009 at 7:30am
Many governments are warning about the risks that may undermine economic recovery. And a lot of that concern is surrounding the value of their currency. Since March, most currencies ... [More »]
British Pound in a Position of Weakness
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 5, 2009 at 7:30am
In the past month we’ve seen statistics that indicate the recession for major economies will be ending this year. And in some countries, like Germany, France and Japan, their ... [More »]
Global Recovery: Good or Bad for the U.S. Dollar?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 29, 2009 at 7:30am
If you’ve followed my commentary on currencies here in Money and Markets, you are well aware of the risk dynamic that has been driving currencies and other financial markets since the ... [More »]
Intervention Threatens the Loonie
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 22, 2009 at 7:30am
When the U.S. sneezed, Canada — like the rest of the world — caught its cold. And the currency of this key U.S. trading partner has since become a victim of the ebb and flow of global ... [More »]
No End to the Road of Risk
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 15, 2009 at 7:30am
Last week the U.S. reported better-than-expected employment data. And the markets liked it. Stocks rallied. Yields advanced. And the dollar actually moved higher. A move higher in ... [More »]
What the Australian Dollar Is Telling Me …
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 8, 2009 at 7:30am
According to the financial markets, the world has become a very calm and comfortable place again. But has it? Just a year ago markets were crashing all around us ... The U.S. housing ... [More »]
Why Deflation … Not Inflation … Remains the Problem
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 1, 2009 at 7:30am
Currency values are highly influenced by interest rates ... a key driver in determining the flow of global capital. For example, if you lived in Japan for the past decade, you would have ... [More »]
How Currencies Impact Earnings
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 25, 2009 at 7:30am
It’s earnings season. And more and more companies are talking about currencies. The headlines read like this ... “Alliance Data 2Q Profit Down 37 Percent, Hurt By Currency Headwinds” ... [More »]
The Critical Piece to the China Plan: A Managed Currency
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 18, 2009 at 7:30am
China's the largest country in the world by population, the third-largest economy and the third-largest exporter. It's also the owner of over $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves. And in the ... [More »]
Financial Markets Giving Key Clues on Currencies
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 11, 2009 at 7:30am
The financial markets have been highly inter-related since the current crisis unleashed fear and uncertainty starting in late 2007. And investors around the world went running for the doors ... [More »]
The Big Mac … Purchasing Price Parity … and the Euro
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 27, 2009 at 7:30am
If you were to travel outside of your home country and encountered a McDonald’s, would you pay more or less for a Big Mac? Well that depends ... You would likely notice a difference though ... [More »]
Why "BRIC" Posturing Against the Dollar Just Doesn’t Add Up
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 20, 2009 at 7:30am
The dollar has been publicly attacked on many fronts over the past three months. And endless accusations have been made that the U.S. is purposely trying to devalue the dollar to lessen ... [More »]
Commodities and the Dollar: What’s the Relationship?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 13, 2009 at 7:30am
The dollar can’t manage to find its way out of the limelight these days. There’s speculation about its demise and the loss of its world reserve currency status. It’s even blamed for higher gas ... [More »]
Will the Pound Get Pounded?
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 6, 2009 at 7:30am
When financial markets were on the way down, risk aversion reigned and every investment that was deemed risky crashed. The U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasuries did well as global investors ... [More »]
Treasury Bonds: In the Eye of the Storm
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 30, 2009 at 7:30am
The U.S. Treasury market has become the focal point of financial markets for the past several trading days. And when Treasuries move, so does the dollar. Market participants are looking ... [More »]
Dollar’s Demise Greatly Exaggerated
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 23, 2009 at 7:30am
Many investors are concerned about the future path of the dollar ... and with good reason. The Treasury is increasing the money supply in amounts never seen before or even imagined ... [More »]
The Incredible Shrinking Economies
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 16, 2009 at 7:30am
Germany is the world’s largest exporter. And in the broadest global recession on record, demand for its exports has come to a virtual standstill. As a result, Germany, the core of the Eurozone ... [More »]
All Eyes Are on U.S. Stocks and the Greenback
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 9, 2009 at 7:30am
In times of stress you can’t rely on normal conditions to hold. In fact, reactions to stress can be quite the opposite ... completely unpredictable. It’s no different in financial markets ... [More »]
Land of Uncertainty and the U.S. Dollar
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 2, 2009 at 7:30am
It’s important to understand the global investment and economic environment to understand what’s going on with currencies. And right now, there’s limited visibility of what lies ahead ... [More »]
More Pain Ahead, Especially for Europe
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 25, 2009 at 7:30am
The IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report this week. And it’s projecting total losses from the global financial crisis to reach $4.1 TRILLION. That’s four times the amount projected in ... [More »]
Key Reversal Signal Spotted. A Boost for the Dollar. And More …
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 18, 2009 at 7:30am
This week there was plenty of data to digest from the financial markets and the overwhelming theme was — more of the same. If you missed it, here’s a run-down ... Global deflation, lifeless ... [More »]
Greed, Fear and the Dollar
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 11, 2009 at 7:30am
It’s not hard to understand the relationship of the dollar with human emotions like greed and fear. And that relationship is rarely more visible than it is today ... When investors are willing to take on ... [More »]
Carry Trade Over, But the Yen Goes Lower
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 4, 2009 at 7:30am
For the past eight years, the carry trade – where investors borrow money from a country with low interest rates and invest it in places that provide higher returns – became extremely popular ... [More »]
How China Could Use Currency as a Weapon
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 21, 2009 at 7:30am
China’s currency policy is pretty far down the list of priorities for the U.S. Treasury staff. But it could be the turning point in this economic crisis — and for the worse. Pressures on China to join ... [More »]
Why It Could Be Curtains for the Euro
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 7, 2009 at 7:30am
The biggest victim of the global housing and credit bubble may be the euro ― the single currency of 16 European nations. Having just celebrated its 10th birthday in a free-fall, the euro is being ... [More »]
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